Income Plan

How much is your income strategy for retirement costing you?

Seventeen years into a bull market that started in March 2009 is a long time for retirement-income plans to go untested. We are not calling for another financial crisis. We are saying that an income plan you cannot defend through one is not a plan — it is a streak.

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The Hidden Cost
Selling shares every month is not free

Selling shares in down months locks in losses and forfeits the future gains those shares would have produced. Compound interest run in reverse is just as powerful — and just as costly.

Two retirees, same January 2000 start, same $1 million, same allocation. One sells from a blended portfolio every month. The other draws from the bond side first and leaves equities alone during the down months. Same portfolio, different mechanics. The calculator shows the gap.

Run the Numbers
See what twenty years could look like

Enter your situation. The calculator replays 2000–2020 monthly returns — the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis — against two withdrawal mechanics: a blended monthly sale (Investor A) versus an ordered withdrawal that draws the bond sleeve first (Investor B).

Both investors hold the same instruments — VTI for equities, AGG for bonds. The only difference is how they take their paycheck. Taxes are not modeled because every retiree's tax situation is meaningfully different. For informational purposes only — not investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial professional before making decisions about your retirement income strategy.

Replays the actual 2000–2020 monthly returns (Feb 2000–Jan 2020) against your starting portfolio. This is a deliberate worst-case window — the dot-com crash followed by the 2008 financial crisis. It is not a forecast.

$
$
Initial withdrawal rate: 4.8% — the 4% rule is the common rule of thumb retirement-planning software treats as sustainable.
After 20 years, Investor B has
$255,188
more than Investor A
≈ 5 years, 4 months of income at $4,000/month
Investor A
Sells monthly from blended 60/40 portfolio
$509,396
Ending balance at Jan 2020
Total withdrawn: $1,289,778
Investor B
Ordered withdrawal — 60/40 with bond sleeve drawn first
$764,585
Ending balance at Jan 2020
Total withdrawn: $1,289,778

Assumptions: Monthly withdrawal escalates 3% annually for inflation. Investor A's portfolio is rebalanced via monthly withdrawals from the blended 60/40 mix. Investor B holds the same 60/40 mix but uses an ordered withdrawal — drawing from the bond sleeve first; the bond sleeve replenishes from equity gains only when the equity side is above its prior high-water mark. Equity returns: VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, bridged with VTSMX pre-May 2001). Bond returns: AGG (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF, bridged with VBMFX pre-September 2003). Taxes, advisory fees, and transaction costs are not modeled.

Next Step
If the number surprised you, talk to us

If your adviser has not walked you through the math on how monthly withdrawals interact with sequence-of-returns risk, ask them to. “The market goes up over the long run” is not a plan — that is the streak talking. Breiter Wealth Management offers a no-cost initial consultation: your current plan, your actual sequence-of-returns exposure, and what a sturdier alternative looks like.

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Disclosures
What this calculator is — and what it is not

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. This calculator illustrates the historical and hypothetical impact of two different income-generation approaches on a sample portfolio. It is not a recommendation, not an offer to sell securities, and not a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Results are hypothetical, do not reflect actual investor experience, and do not account for taxes, advisory fees, or your specific circumstances.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The forward 20-year stress test replays the 2000–2020 historical monthly return sequence as a worst- case window. This is a deliberate stress test, not a forecast. Returns over other historical windows differ materially. The projection is not a prediction of future market behavior.

Methodology. Equity returns: VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) monthly total returns, bridged with VTSMX for the period before VTI's May 2001 inception. Bond returns: AGG (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF) monthly total returns, bridged with VBMFX for the period before AGG's September 2003 inception. Data source: Yahoo Finance via yfinance, pulled 2026-05-14. Withdrawal escalates 3% annually for inflation. Investor B's bond sleeve replenishes from equity gains only when the equity side exceeds its prior high-water mark, never from principal. Taxes, advisory fees, transaction costs, and bid-ask spreads are not modeled.

Every individual's financial situation is meaningfully different. Please consult a licensed financial professional, tax adviser, and attorney before making decisions related to your retirement income strategy.

Breiter Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. See our Disclosures and Privacy Policy for additional regulatory information.

Breiter Wealth Management

Independent fiduciary financial planning and investment management. SEC-registered investment adviser based in Creve Coeur, Missouri.

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Custody:Client assets are held at Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., an independent and unaffiliated SEC-registered broker-dealer and member SIPC. Breiter Wealth Management, LLC does not take custody of client funds or securities.

Disclosures: Breiter Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. For additional information, please review our Disclosures, Privacy Policy, Form ADV, and Form CRS.